The night was deep, and the study of the imperial envoy's residence was brightly lit. Xu Qinghuan stood alone before the large sand table of the Northern Frontier. He raised his hand to pull out all the small black flags representing the Helian Royal Court, gathering them in his palm.
Following the undulating ridges of the Yinshan mountain range all the way north, past Laoya Spring, his gaze finally settled on the vast hinterland of the grasslands.
Then, adopting a completely new formation, he densely planted the black flags in his hand back into the various passes and channels north of Yinshan.
The sound of turning door hinges broke the tranquility of the room. Tie Lanshan strode in wearing a half-worn cloak, bringing with him the chill of the early summer night wind from outside.
Tie Lanshan walked to the long desk, his eyes naturally falling upon the sand table. Looking at the black flags concentrated along the Yinshan line, his brows gradually furrowed as he asked:
"Lord Xu summoned me late at night, could it be that there are new variables in the situation on this sand table?
"Looking at your method of deploying troops, it seems as if the Helians intend to press the entire military strength of their Royal Court right up to the base of our Zhenbei City walls.
"Such a formation, in the twenty-three years I have defended the Northern Frontier, I have only seen once, back when Old Khan Helian came south to raid for supplies."
Xu Qinghuan tossed the last remaining black flag in his hand into the brush pot, turned around to look directly at this veteran of a hundred battles, and asked in return:
"General Tie, a few days ago in the dunes to the north, we used our new firearms to completely annihilate an elite cavalry unit of a hundred men under Huyan Ba.
"Given the Helians' vengeful nature, has the enemy camp made any retaliatory moves these past few days?"
Tie Lanshan shook his head and answered truthfully:
"No movement at all. Huyan Ba's camp hasn't even sent out a single scout to provoke a battle. It is unusually quiet.
"The night scouts from the outpost camp reported that even the sound of training horns in the Helian camp has stopped. Those stragglers who usually wander around raiding for supplies have all retreated to their respective camps. Not a single trace of them can be found.
"I originally thought that it was the power of our firearms that intimidated them, making them afraid to act rashly."
Xu Qinghuan, however, presented a firm conclusion.
"Those high-ranking officials in the Great Qian court all believe that the Helian Khan has just unified the tribes and is plagued by continuous internal strife.
"Therefore, he is completely powerless to march south. This is actually a fatal misjudgment that could ruin the Great Qian empire.
"The Ministry of War and the Ministry of Revenue are bickering with each other over accounts, and the civil and military officials of the entire court are glossing over the peace.
"According to the intelligence in my hands, the Great Shaman within the Royal Court is being forcibly suppressed by the Khan. Those old nobles who opposed the southern expedition have also suffered bloody purges. Piecing these fragmented clues together, there is only one truth left: the Helians are not powerless to march south at all. Instead, they are secretly assembling their forces, preparing to strike in full strength."
Tie Lanshan's gaze remained on the sand table. After hearing these words, he raised his large hand, stroked the beard under his chin, and raised an objection:
"Lord Xu, I have fought at the border for a lifetime, and I still understand the common sense of military strategy.
"The Helian Khan is indeed a formidable figure, but he has just annexed the other tribes, and the hearts of the various tribes are unstable. More importantly, their provisions are completely insufficient.
"The grasslands have just survived the white disaster. Countless cattle and sheep died, and the warhorses have lost serious weight. If hundreds of thousands of troops are launched south at this time, how can logistical supplies be maintained?
"Such a desperate gamble is by no means the style of a mature commander.
"Before the troops move, provisions must go first. This is an unchangeable iron rule throughout the ages. No matter how fierce and brave the Helians are, they cannot cross Yinshan on empty stomachs to attack our fortified cities."
Meeting Tie Lanshan's scrutinizing gaze, Xu Qinghuan reorganized the memories of this historical context in his mind, transforming them into rigorous deductive logic, and analyzed them methodically:
"General Tie only calculated the account of provisions in military strategy, but failed to calculate the political account in the Helian Khan's heart.
"It is precisely because he has just unified the tribes and internal conflicts are rife, with various tribes ready to rebel again at any time to compete for the remaining pastures and livestock, that he urgently needs a massive external war. He intends to use the wealth plundered from Great Qian to fill the deficit of the grasslands, thereby diverting internal hatred and contradictions.
"As for the hundred cavalrymen who died in the dunes, the Khan does not care about their lives at all. He will even use this as an excuse to proclaim Great Qian's provocation to the entire grassland. This is exactly the perfect pretext he needs to incite the various tribes to share a bitter hatred of the enemy and rightfully sound the horn for the southern expedition.
"The rule of survival on the grassland has never been to sit and wait for death, but to plunder outward. The Khan knows better than anyone that only by pointing the scimitars of all the tribes to the south can his tiger-skin throne sit securely."
Tie Lanshan listened quietly to Xu Qinghuan's analysis, and the doubts in his heart began to dissipate bit by bit.
Looking at that composed face illuminated by the candlelight, he formed a completely new assessment of Xu Qinghuan's strategic acumen in his heart.
A civil official who had lived in the capital for a long time could actually break free from the constraints of military texts and perceive the war situation from the political calculations of an enemy monarch. This vision and courage had already surpassed more than half of the military generals in the court.
Tie Lanshan did not speak to refute him again. He took a step and walked to the other side of the sand table, pulling out a small red flag representing Great Qian from a wooden box filled with flags.
His gaze patrolled the undulating terrain for a moment, and finally, he heavily planted that red flag at a strategic pass of the Yinshan defense line.
Tie Lanshan broke the tranquility of the room, speaking a sentence that sent a chill down Xu Qinghuan's spine:
"Lord Xu, I have guarded the Northern Frontier for twenty-three years and dealt with the Helians countless times. The wolf packs on the grassland never contract their forces during the summer when water and grass are abundant.
"But since the beginning of summer this year, the Helian cavalry around the various passes of Yinshan have decreased by a full thirty percent."
These words, spoken from the mouth of an old general who fought on the front lines all year round, undoubtedly verified Xu Qinghuan's deduction from a cruel realistic level.
Those cavalry who were originally scattered across the wasteland had all been gathered back by the Helian Khan, converging into a massive army deep within the Royal Court.
The two looked at each other across the sand table, leaving only the faint crackle of bursting candlewicks in the room.
There was no need to say another word; both sides already understood the severity of the current situation.
Great Qian's Northern Frontier defense line would likely face a rare military disaster.
Tie Lanshan pulled the collar of his cloak closer and turned to stride toward the wooden door of the study.
When his hand lifted the heavy door curtain, he suddenly stopped in his tracks.
He did not look back, but with his back to Xu Qinghuan, asked in a low, almost inaudible voice:
"However, Lord Xu, there is one thing I have always wanted to ask you.
"How long has it been since you came to this Northern Frontier from the capital?
"At most, it has been barely a month. How did you know the weight of the Great Shaman in the Helian Royal Court, and how did you know that the Khan is exterminating the anti-war faction?"
Tie Lanshan did not wait for Xu Qinghuan to answer. The curtain in his hand fell, and the sound of his footsteps gradually faded away in the quiet corridor.
Leaving only Xu Qinghuan standing alone in the flickering candlelight, looking at the sand table before him.
